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ATM Economics for Paid Advertising

Mental model for evaluating paid advertising where you should maximize spend on any channel that returns more than it costs, like an ATM that outputs more than you put in

Decision Rule

If customer lifetime value significantly exceeds customer acquisition cost, increase ad spend until the arbitrage disappears or budget constraints hit

How It Works

Customer pays acquisition cost upfront but generates revenue over time through retention, so short-term losses can yield long-term profits if unit economics work

Failure Modes

Focusing on short-term ROAS instead of lifetime value

Not accounting for churn in lifetime value calculations

Lacking sufficient tracking to measure true attribution

Running out of budget before reaching statistical significance

Example Decision

Spend $80 to acquire customer who pays $39 first month but generates $550 lifetime value - continue spending until cost per acquisition approaches $400-500 range