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Content Volume Probability Model

The principle that 1 in 10 pieces of content will significantly outperform others, so success requires high volume content production to capture outlier hits

Decision Rule

Always optimize for more content attempts rather than perfectionism on individual pieces, since predicting viral content is impossible

How It Works

Viral content success is largely random and platform-dependent. By producing 10x more content, you increase your chances of hitting the algorithmic sweet spot that creates breakout performance

Failure Modes

Over-investing in production quality of individual pieces

Trying to predict what will go viral instead of testing

Giving up after a few failed attempts

Focusing on average performance rather than outlier hunting

Example Decision

Instead of spending $2000 on one high-production influencer video, spend $900/month for 30 videos from a creator network, knowing 3 will likely outperform the single expensive video