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Content Volume Probability Model
The principle that 1 in 10 pieces of content will significantly outperform others, so success requires high volume content production to capture outlier hits
Decision Rule
Always optimize for more content attempts rather than perfectionism on individual pieces, since predicting viral content is impossible
How It Works
Viral content success is largely random and platform-dependent. By producing 10x more content, you increase your chances of hitting the algorithmic sweet spot that creates breakout performance
Failure Modes
Over-investing in production quality of individual pieces
Trying to predict what will go viral instead of testing
Giving up after a few failed attempts
Focusing on average performance rather than outlier hunting
Example Decision
“Instead of spending $2000 on one high-production influencer video, spend $900/month for 30 videos from a creator network, knowing 3 will likely outperform the single expensive video”