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Design as Success Probability Multiplier

Good design functions as a force multiplier that increases the probability of success across multiple dimensions rather than just making things look better

Decision Rule

When evaluating whether to invest in design quality, ask: 'How much does this increase my probability of the outcomes I want?' rather than 'How much does this cost?'

How It Works

Design quality impacts virality (people share good design), trust (professional appearance increases credibility), differentiation (stands out in crowded markets), and conversion (better UX drives action)

Failure Modes

Treating design as pure cost center without measuring impact

Focusing on personal aesthetic preferences over user outcomes

Over-investing in design while neglecting core functionality

Assuming expensive design is automatically better design

Example Decision

Choosing to spend extra time on a unique personal website design because it might help get job opportunities or clients that a generic template wouldn't attract