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Back to Mental Models

Historical Novelty Pattern Recognition

The biggest breakthroughs often seem silly or odd when first introduced, so unusually high novelty scores combined with dismissive reactions can signal future importance

Decision Rule

When evaluating new technologies or ideas, pay special attention to things that seem very novel but are being dismissed - these may be early signals of major shifts

How It Works

Revolutionary ideas often don't fit existing mental models, causing initial rejection, but their novelty is precisely what makes them transformative over time

Failure Modes

Chasing novelty for its own sake without practical value

Ignoring market timing and adoption barriers

Confusing weird with innovative

Not distinguishing between good weird and bad weird

Example Decision

Bitcoin's first mention on Hacker News was mostly dismissed as 'stupid' but had extremely high novelty - this dismissal+novelty combination was actually a strong positive signal