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Signal vs Noise Technology Evaluation
Distinguish between genuine technological breakthroughs and temporary hype cycles
Decision Rule
Ignore marketing buzz, focus on actual capability improvements that solve real problems
How It Works
Conservative evaluation prevents wasting resources on fads while ensuring you don't miss genuine paradigm shifts
Failure Modes
Being too conservative and missing real breakthroughs
Getting caught up in hype without substance
Evaluating based on current limitations rather than trajectory
Example Decision
“Initially dismissed ChatGPT as hype, but when Claude 3.5 Sonnet could generate production-quality code, recognized it as genuine signal”