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The Startup Ideas Podcast

The best businesses are built at the intersection of emerging technology, community, and real human needs.

Back to Mental Models

Vending Machine Profitability Model

Evaluate business opportunities based on whether you can predictably put in $1 and get $1.50+ back, focusing on mechanistic rather than aspirational metrics

Decision Rule

If you can clearly demonstrate the input-output ratio and it's positive, scale by increasing inputs rather than optimizing the mechanism

How It Works

Reduces complex business decisions to simple mathematical relationships, enabling rapid scaling decisions

Failure Modes

Oversimplifying complex customer journeys

Ignoring longer-term brand impacts

Missing market saturation effects

Assuming linear scalability

Example Decision

AI ad service gets leads at $10 each, converts 20% at $5K average, generating $1000 revenue per $50 spent - clear vending machine signal to scale advertising spend.