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AI Excel tools are currently at 'Tesla self-driving' maturity level - very capable for early adopters but not yet mainstream ready
Spiciness
Technology Maturity AssessmentThe Reasoning
Complex tasks work well but edge cases still require human supervision, similar to how Tesla FSD works well in controlled conditions but needs human backup
What Needs to Be True
- Error rates continue decreasing
- Observability features mature
- User trust in AI supervision grows
- Cost-benefit clearly favors AI over human work
Counterargument
AI improvement could be non-linear, jumping directly to full autonomy without gradual improvement
What Would Change This View
Breakthrough in AI reasoning reliability or fundamental physics constraints being hit
Implications for Builders
Design for supervised automation, not full autonomy
Invest heavily in error detection and correction
Build strong review and audit trails
Target early adopters willing to supervise
Example Application
“Build AI Excel tools with clear review workflows and error flagging rather than assuming perfect output”