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There's a 2-3 year arbitrage window where brands can achieve significantly better ROI using creator networks instead of traditional paid advertising, but this advantage will diminish as the market matures

Spiciness
market_prediction

The Reasoning

Currently, most brands don't understand for-you-page algorithms and over-value follower counts. This creates pricing inefficiency where talented creators are undervalued. As more brands adopt this strategy, creator prices will rise to match their true value

What Needs to Be True

  • For-you-page algorithms continue to prioritize engagement over follower count
  • Creator supply remains higher than brand demand
  • Platforms don't change policies to favor established accounts
  • Most brands remain focused on traditional metrics

Counterargument

Platforms might adjust algorithms to favor established creators to maintain creator economy stability, or brand adoption could happen faster than expected, quickly closing the arbitrage gap

What Would Change This View

If major platforms start explicitly boosting high-follower accounts, or if creator pricing rapidly increases to match performance value

Implications for Builders

Act quickly to build creator networks before competition increases

Invest in creator management systems now while talent is affordable

Focus on building platform-specific content expertise

Prepare for eventual shift to different distribution strategies

Example Application

A SaaS company should start building creator networks in 2024 while paying $900/month per creator. By 2027, the same talent might cost $2500/month due to market maturation

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