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Technology Adoption Cycle

Evolution from AI Abundance to Human Curation

Timeframe: 2-5 years for basic AI services to commoditize, longer for complex workflows

What's Changing

AI tools are creating an abundance of content and services, but this will eventually lead to oversaturation requiring human taste and curation to differentiate

Driving Forces

AI agents becoming capable of complex multi-step workflows

Democratization of AI tools making them accessible to everyone

Market saturation as everyone adopts similar AI capabilities

Consumer fatigue with low-quality AI-generated content

Winners

  • Early adopters who build superior AI workflows before commoditization
  • Companies that combine AI efficiency with human creativity and taste
  • Platforms that help humans direct and curate AI output effectively
  • Businesses that use AI for internal operations rather than customer-facing content

Losers

  • Companies relying solely on basic AI content generation
  • Traditional service providers who don't adapt to AI efficiency gains
  • Businesses that compete only on volume rather than quality
  • Late adopters who enter after basic AI services are commoditized

How to Position Yourself

1

Focus on superior direction and curation of AI output

2

Develop proprietary data sources or unique perspectives

3

Build AI critic and quality control systems

4

Combine AI automation with human creativity and strategy

5

Create network effects and data moats around AI services

Early Signals to Watch

Flood of similar AI-generated content in specific nichesDecreasing engagement with generic AI contentPremium pricing for human-curated or highly-personalized AI outputPlatform algorithms favoring original or high-quality content over volume

Example Implementation

A newsletter that uses AI to research and draft content, but employs human editors to add unique insights, interview sources, and maintain a distinct voice that readers can't get elsewhere.