My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
The 10-Year Trend Betting Framework
A strategic approach to business building that focuses exclusively on trends and opportunities that will play out over 10+ years rather than immediate market gaps.
How It Works
Identify fundamental shifts happening in technology, demographics, or regulation that will create massive opportunities over a decade. Bet on these early when competition is minimal and build for the long-term market.
Components
Study macro trends in technology, demographics, regulation
Identify what will be different in 10 years
Find industries that haven't adapted to these trends yet
Build solutions for the future market, not today's market
Accept early losses for long-term positioning
When to Use
When building venture-scale businesses, when you have patient capital, when looking for category-defining opportunities.
When Not to Use
When you need immediate revenue, when building lifestyle businesses, when market timing is critical.
Anti-Patterns to Avoid
Example
“In 2007, betting on unstructured data (MongoDB) when everyone used SQL, or betting on psychedelics research before FDA approval, anticipating 10-year legalization timeline.”
Related Knowledge
Healthcare remains fundamentally unsolved with massive opportunities for disruption
Knee surgery costs $40,000 in US vs $20,000 in France with better results.
Systematically understand a new industry well enough to identify billion-dollar opportunities
A 50-page document identifying 3-5 major pain points, key players, industry structure, and specific product opportunitie
Scale across multiple companies by being an effective chairman rather than trying to be CEO of everything
CEOs who proactively reach out for guidance, successful financing rounds, strategic decisions made efficiently, and comp
early-global-expansion
mongodb-three-year-struggle
Regulation Inflections Framework
A method for identifying business opportunities by tracking regulatory changes that unlock previously restricted markets or create new compliance requirements.