My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Bullets to Cannonballs Framework
A systematic approach to innovation where you fire small, low-cost 'bullets' (tests) first, then invest heavily in 'cannonballs' (full execution) only when bullets prove successful.
How It Works
Minimizes risk by testing assumptions cheaply before major investment. Each bullet provides data to validate or invalidate hypotheses about market fit, product viability, or business model.
Components
Identify actionable insight or hypothesis to test
Design minimal viable investment (bullet) to test insight
Execute bullet quickly and measure results
If bullet works, convert to cannonball with full investment
Build complete recipe around successful cannonball
Pull additional resources into proven recipe
When to Use
When entering new markets, testing product ideas, or exploring business model variations. Essential for resource-constrained companies or high-uncertainty environments.
When Not to Use
When you have overwhelming evidence of success, in winner-take-all markets requiring immediate scale, or when bullets would alert competitors prematurely.
Anti-Patterns to Avoid
Example
“Instead of launching a full diaper brand globally, test in New Zealand first with minimal investment. When it captures 40% market share, convert to cannonball by building dedicated factories and expanding internationally.”
Related Knowledge
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First Principles Manufacturing
Building manufacturing operations from fundamental principles rather than copying industry norms, focusing on materials cost as baseline and automating everything possible.
Win or Learn, Never Lose
Reframe every business outcome as either a win (success) or learning opportunity (data for improvement), eliminating the