My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Revealed Preference Assessment
Evaluate people's true beliefs and priorities by observing their actions rather than listening to their stated positions
Decision Rule
When words and actions conflict, trust the actions as the more reliable indicator of true beliefs and motivations
How It Works
Actions require real commitment and sacrifice, while words are cheap and easily manipulated for social desirability or signaling
Failure Modes
Over-interpreting single actions
Ignoring context that explains action-word mismatches
Missing genuine belief evolution over time
Example Decision
“A CEO claims work-life balance is important but consistently emails employees at midnight and schedules weekend meetings - their actions reveal they don't actually prioritize balance”
Related Knowledge
Money continues to increase happiness well beyond basic needs
Wealth accumulation is a rational happiness optimization strategy
Dumb vs Dumbass Decision Framework
A framework distinguishing between lack of intelligence (dumb) and poor judgment despite intelligence (dumbass).
Handle public employee termination situations without legal and PR disasters
Employee termination handled with dignity, no legal exposure, minimal negative PR, company reputation protected
elon's not dumb but he's a dumbass and there's a big difference
Intelligence and good judgment are separate capabilities - smart people can consistently make terrible decisions
anytime a rich person tells you money doesn't make you happy just ask them for their money
People's actions reveal their true beliefs better than their words - if money truly didn't matter, wealthy people would
When rich people claim money doesn't make you happy, they're being hypocritical - if money is truly
Revealed preference theory - people's actions reveal their true beliefs better than their words.