My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Arbitrage Window Recognition
Mental framework for identifying temporary competitive advantages before they become widely adopted or regulated away
Decision Rule
Ask: Is this capability available but not yet widely used? How long before competition catches up? Can I build sustainable advantage during the window?
How It Works
Works by recognizing gaps between tool availability and market awareness, allowing early adopters to gain advantages before saturation
Failure Modes
Mistaking permanent advantages for temporary ones
Entering arbitrage too late in the cycle
Building entire business on single arbitrage opportunity
Ignoring ethical implications for short-term gain
Example Decision
“Seeing TikTok promote slideshow content while few creators use AI generation tools, deciding to build audience through automated content creation before window closes”
Related Knowledge
Early AI adoption creates unfair advantages that level playing fields for individuals without tradit
Focus should be on democratizing access to AI tools rather than restricting them
AI Arbitrage Window Framework
A systematic approach to identify temporary advantages created by AI tools before markets become saturated or regulations catch up.
Create professional video ads using AI without hiring actors or production teams
Professional-looking video ads featuring historical figures or avatars that generate engagement and conversions
Automatically find and apply working discount codes during online shopping
Consistently finding working discount codes that reduce purchase prices by 10-30%
Productivity Acceleration Adoption Pattern
Once users experience significant productivity gains from new tools, reverting to previous methods becomes psychological
Once you get used to an AI browser, you will not go back
AI-enhanced browsing creates such significant efficiency gains that reverting feels impossible