My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
High-Profile Criminal Capture Through Minor Mistakes
Sophisticated criminals with otherwise perfect operational security are frequently caught through small, seemingly unrelated errors rather than major investigative breakthroughs.
Decision Rule
When evaluating whether someone could be caught for high-stakes activities, focus on tiny operational security failures rather than major detective work.
How It Works
Complex operations require many small decisions, each creating potential failure points. Even brilliant operators make mundane mistakes like wrong usernames, expired licenses, or routine traffic stops.
Failure Modes
Overestimating the sophistication required to catch criminals
Focusing on major investigative techniques while ignoring simple errors
Assuming perfect OpSec is maintainable long-term
Example Decision
“When assessing if someone could be Satoshi, consider whether they might have accidentally posted from the wrong forum account rather than whether the FBI could crack their encryption.”
Related Knowledge
Anonymous founders are strategically superior for system-threatening technologies
Builders of technologies that challenge power structures should prioritize anonymity over personal recognition
Three-Stage Currency Adoption Framework
A currency must pass through three distinct stages to become truly functional: store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account.
Launch a potentially system-threatening technology while avoiding personal targeting
Technology achieves widespread adoption while founder remains unknown and safe from retaliation by threatened institutions.
You can't be the guy behind it because you have too much power
Being a known founder of system-threatening technology makes you a target for institutional retaliation
Government is now pro crypto, political suicide to be anti-crypto
US political landscape has shifted so significantly that opposing cryptocurrency is now politically disadvantageous
The world is better off never knowing who Satoshi Nakamoto is, despite intense curiosity about Bitco
Revealing Satoshi's identity would create personal danger for the individual, undermine Bitcoin's decentralized credibility, and satisfy curiosity at the cost of the technology's foundational principles.