My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Harsh Grader Heuristic
The cost of false positives (letting bad things in) is much higher than false negatives (rejecting good things), so be extremely selective
Decision Rule
When in doubt, reject. Only accept obviously good opportunities/people/investments.
How It Works
Asymmetric risk - one bad decision can wipe out gains from multiple good decisions, so optimize for avoiding bad decisions rather than maximizing good ones
Failure Modes
Being too harsh and missing breakthrough opportunities
Applying to situations where false negatives are actually more costly
Using when you need to take more risk to achieve goals
Example Decision
“Rejecting 90 potentially good networking contacts to focus deeply on the 5 obviously excellent ones, because one toxic relationship costs more than missing several good ones.”
Related Knowledge
Family business proximity creates competitive advantage
Physical and emotional proximity enables faster communication, aligned incentives, and long-term thinking
Small differences compound into massive advantages
Focus on seemingly minor details that competitors can't easily replicate due to their scale or structure
Timeline Forcing Analysis
A method of analyzing successful companies by drawing out year-by-year timelines to reveal the 'forgotten grinding years' between start and breakthrough.
Too Hard Pile Decision Making
A decision-making framework where you categorize opportunities into 'obviously good', 'obviously bad', and 'too hard to judge' - then only act on the obviously good ones.
Small Batch Iteration Advantage
A competitive advantage gained by testing products in much smaller batches than competitors, enabling faster feedback loops and more iterations.
Build a multi-generational family business where family members work together and live in proximity
Family members living in same neighborhood, all working in family business, kids playing together, successful exit while