My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
One Stat Business Model
A business opportunity that can be entirely explained and justified by a single compelling statistic
Decision Rule
If one statistic encapsulates the entire market opportunity and business case, it's likely a strong business idea
How It Works
The statistic reveals a massive gap between current state and obvious future state, making the business case self-evident
Failure Modes
Stat is misleading or doesn't reflect real behavior
Gap exists for good reasons that are hard to overcome
Timing is wrong - too early or too late
Example Decision
“2% of warehouses use robotics today, going to nearly 100% - this one stat explains the entire warehouse robotics opportunity”
Related Knowledge
Ideas don't matter, execution matters
Focus on starting and iterating rather than perfecting the idea
Export Framework
A systematic approach to finding business opportunities by identifying expensive internal solutions that big companies b
Technology Wave Pattern
A framework for identifying and categorizing major technological shifts that create trillion-dollar opportunities approx
Launch a profitable AI consulting practice targeting specific verticals
Multi-million dollar AI consulting practice that gets acquired by major consulting firm for 8-9 figure exit
Build valuable digital likeness rights portfolio before market matures
Portfolio of celebrity/athlete digital rights that generates recurring licensing revenue as deepfake technology scales
Conversion Rate Timing Decay
Customer interest and conversion probability decay rapidly with time, so optimal conversion happens at the moment of pea