My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Second and Third Order Effects Analysis
Mental framework for analyzing how primary changes create cascading effects that most people miss, revealing hidden business opportunities
Decision Rule
When evaluating any major trend or technology shift, always ask 'If this is true, what else becomes true?' at least 2-3 levels deep
How It Works
Most entrepreneurs focus on obvious first-order effects of trends. Second and third-order effects are less obvious but often larger opportunities with less competition.
Failure Modes
Stopping analysis at first-order effects
Overestimating speed of second-order effects
Ignoring negative second-order effects that could kill the opportunity
Example Decision
“If drone delivery becomes common (first order), packaging will change since items don't need to survive truck transport (second order), creating opportunities for new packaging companies focused on drone-optimized delivery (third order)”
Related Knowledge
Data-driven trend spotting beats intuition for identifying opportunities
Systematic data collection and analysis can reveal opportunities that intuitive entrepreneurs miss
Digits Database Framework
A systematic approach to identifying business opportunities by collecting generation-defining statistics and examining their implications rather than dismissing them as merely interesting facts.
Regulation Inflections Framework
A method for identifying business opportunities by tracking regulatory changes that unlock previously restricted markets or create new compliance requirements.
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