My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Make strategic decisions by working backwards from likely future scenarios
Entrepreneurs choosing between multiple ambitious paths
One-time decision framework, 30+ year visionWhat Success Looks Like
Clear conviction about which path to pursue based on which future you'd be proudest to have contributed to
Steps to Execute
Imagine yourself retired in 2050 reading history books about your industry
Ask what those history books would say happened
Identify whether incumbents or outsiders drove breakthrough innovation
Determine what type of person/team would be needed for that breakthrough
Assess honestly whether you could become that person/build that team
Choose the path where you'd never regret trying regardless of outcome
Checklist
Inputs Needed
- Clear vision of industry's potential future states
- Honest assessment of your current capabilities
- Understanding of innovation patterns in your industry
- Deep introspection about what would motivate you long-term
Outputs
- High-conviction decision about which path to pursue
- Clear understanding of capabilities you need to build
- Motivation that survives setbacks and difficulties
- Framework for making subsequent strategic decisions
Example
“Blake imagined reading aviation history in 2050 and realized startups, not Boeing, would drive supersonic breakthrough, helping him commit to an ambitious path despite lack of aerospace experience.”
Related Knowledge
Bystander Effect in Business Opportunities
A cognitive bias where obviously valuable problems get ignored because everyone assumes someone else must already be working on them, leaving trillion-dollar opportunities hiding in plain sight.
Pasta Extrusion Self-Development Framework
A methodical approach to reshaping yourself into the person capable of achieving an ambitious goal by identifying the specific 'hole' you need to fit through and systematically acquiring the required skills and attributes.
First Principles vs Pattern Matching Decision Framework
A systematic approach to understanding problems by going to root causes and fundamental physics rather than relying on rules of thumb, analogies, or conventional wisdom.
barcode_scanning_game_depression
Build deep technical credibility from scratch in a complex field
Ability to have detailed technical conversations with experts, catch BS from supposed experts, and make informed technic
Emotional Piggy Bank for Difficult Projects
Every struggle and setback you push through deposits a quarter in an emotional piggy bank, which you get to break open w