The Startup Ideas Podcast
The best businesses are built at the intersection of emerging technology, community, and real human needs.
AI search (GEO) is overhyped because search volume is still tiny compared to Google, and early success is biased by tech early adopters rather than mainstream adoption.
The Reasoning
The data showing explosive AI search growth comes primarily from software/tech companies whose customers are early adopters. This creates sampling bias making the opportunity appear larger than it is for most businesses.
What Needs to Be True
- Tech/startup community represents broader market behavior
- AI search volume grows significantly beyond current levels
- High conversion rates remain stable as volume increases
- Mainstream consumers adopt AI search for product research
Counterargument
Even small volume with 40% conversion rates can be more valuable than large volume with 2% conversion rates, especially for high-ticket items.
What Would Change This View
Seeing sustained AI search adoption across non-tech demographics, volume reaching 20%+ of total searches, or conversion rates remaining high at scale.
Implications for Builders
Don't abandon traditional SEO for AI search optimization
Test AI search optimization but maintain channel diversification
Focus on products with genuine research phases
Monitor metrics closely vs other channels
Example Application
“SaaS founder allocates 15% of marketing budget to AI search vs 60% to Google SEO and 25% to other channels, tracking ROI to adjust allocation based on performance.”
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