My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Math as a Service Business Model
A business model that uses statistical probability and known odds to create profitable games or challenges, essentially functioning as an outdoor casino with favorable house edge.
How It Works
Works by understanding the true probability of an event (like hole-in-one odds of 1 in 25,000) and pricing the attempt to ensure mathematical profit over volume while offering attractive payouts that feel achievable to customers.
Components
Research actual statistical probability of the challenge outcome
Calculate required volume and pricing to ensure house edge
Create visually appealing and entertaining experience
Find location with existing foot traffic or target audience
Set up simple payment and tracking system
When to Use
When you can accurately calculate odds of a specific outcome, have a captive or motivated audience, and can create an entertaining experience around the challenge.
When Not to Use
When odds are too difficult to calculate accurately, when legal gambling restrictions apply, or when the entertainment value is low.
Anti-Patterns to Avoid
Example
“Hole-in-one challenge with $10,000 payout: amateur golfers have 1 in 25,000 chance of success. Charge $40 for 25 balls. If you get 1,000 attempts (40 sets of 25 balls), you collect $40,000 in revenue. Statistically, you pay out $10,000 once, netting $30,000 profit.”
Related Knowledge
The business is math. They're just using math, right?
Profitable games/challenges are fundamentally about understanding statistical probability and pricing accordingly
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