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Investment Thesis Litigation Framework
A systematic approach to evaluating competing investment or business theories by collecting multiple expert perspectives and weighing evidence like a legal case.
How It Works
Identify 3-5 contrasting expert opinions on a topic, collect their evidence and reasoning, then evaluate which thesis has strongest logical foundation and supporting data.
Components
Identify 3-5 credible experts with different viewpoints
Document each person's core thesis and reasoning
Collect evidence each expert uses to support their position
Gut-check which thesis feels most logical to you
Stack-rank evidence quality across all theses
Make allocation decisions based on confidence levels
When to Use
When facing complex investment decisions, market uncertainty, or any situation where multiple credible experts disagree.
When Not to Use
For simple decisions with clear data, when time is extremely limited, or when you have deep personal expertise in the domain.
Anti-Patterns to Avoid
Example
“Evaluating economic outlook by comparing Ray Dalio's empire cycle thesis vs. dollar milkshake theory vs. Bitcoin maximalist position, weighing evidence for each, then allocating portfolio accordingly.”
Related Knowledge
Smart does not equal wise and the goal is wise not smart
Good judgment and prioritization are more valuable than raw intelligence or analytical ability
Systematically evaluate and optimize personal investment allocation through peer feedback
Clear understanding of current allocation, identification of blind spots, actionable feedback from trusted peers, and refined investment strategy aligned with goals.
Convert entrepreneurial success into sustainable long-term wealth
Financial independence where investment returns can fund lifestyle indefinitely without touching principal, plus continued income from new ventures.
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Pivot vs Persevere Decision Framework
A structured approach to deciding whether to continue with current strategy or change direction using time-boxed milesto