My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Expected Value Decision Making
Making decisions based on long-term mathematical expectation rather than individual outcomes
Decision Rule
Focus on whether the decision process was correct, not whether this specific outcome was favorable
How It Works
Good decisions can have bad outcomes due to variance. Judge decisions by their expected value over many iterations, not single results.
Failure Modes
Changing strategy based on recent bad outcomes
Celebrating bad decisions that happened to work out
Focusing on results instead of process quality
Example Decision
“You invest in a startup with strong fundamentals that fails. Instead of concluding investing was wrong, you analyze if your due diligence process was sound and the risk-reward ratio was favorable.”
Related Knowledge
People are naturally good at reading others but lose trust in this ability as they age
Instead of learning new skills, focus on rebuilding trust in your existing intuitive abilities
Breakdown to Breakthrough Framework
A mindset that reframes adversity and failure as opportunities for growth and transformation rather than setbacks
Victim vs Responsible Framework
A mental model that distinguishes between taking a victim stance (blaming external circumstances) versus taking complete
Develop the ability to read people's true intentions and emotional states
Ability to sense when someone is lying, uncomfortable, confident, or hiding information through behavioral cues
Handle adversity, losses, and setbacks without self-destructive behavior
Ability to maintain good decision-making during losses, avoid chasing bad decisions with worse ones, and use adversity a
Expensive Happiness Principle
Your emotional state should be premium-priced - it should take significant negative events to affect your mood, not triv