My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Construction industry has massive 'idiot index' - final building costs are hundreds of times higher than raw material costs, creating huge disruption opportunity
The Reasoning
Similar to Elon's rocket analysis - when final product price vastly exceeds material costs, there's usually massive inefficiency that can be eliminated through first-principles thinking and automation
What Needs to Be True
- Building codes can be programmed into software reliably
- Factory automation can handle customization at scale
- Consumers will accept factory-built homes with proper quality
- Logistics of delivery and assembly can be solved economically
Counterargument
Construction has high material costs due to complexity, local regulations, skilled labor requirements, and site-specific challenges that automation can't solve
What Would Change This View
Evidence that customization requirements prevent automation benefits, or that regulatory barriers make factory approach uneconomical
Implications for Builders
Massive opportunity for first mover in automated housing
Traditional construction companies vulnerable to disruption
Software and AI capabilities becoming critical in construction
Vertical integration advantages in housing production
Example Application
“Build houses for $500/sq meter using automated factory when traditional construction costs $2000+/sq meter, capturing the efficiency gap as profit and consumer savings”
Related Knowledge
Bullets to Cannonballs Framework
A systematic approach to innovation where you fire small, low-cost 'bullets' (tests) first, then invest heavily in 'cannonballs' (full execution) only when bullets prove successful.
First Principles Manufacturing
Building manufacturing operations from fundamental principles rather than copying industry norms, focusing on materials cost as baseline and automating everything possible.
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Win or Learn, Never Lose
Reframe every business outcome as either a win (success) or learning opportunity (data for improvement), eliminating the
2% Weekly Improvement Compounding
Target 2% improvement every week across all business metrics, trusting compound effects over time even when individual i