My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
E-commerce is a solved problem and no longer offers significant entrepreneurial opportunities
The Reasoning
If you can name anything on Earth, you can find a site with 10,000 options delivered to your house by tomorrow. The infrastructure, logistics, and consumer behavior are all established.
What Needs to Be True
- Consumer needs are fully served by existing platforms
- Distribution and fulfillment infrastructure is commoditized
- Competition makes margins unsustainable for new entrants
- Innovation opportunities are incremental rather than transformative
Counterargument
Niche markets, new product categories, and geographic expansion still offer opportunities. New technologies like AR/VR could create new commerce experiences.
What Would Change This View
Emergence of new consumer behaviors not served by current platforms, or fundamental technology shifts that recreate commerce infrastructure.
Implications for Builders
Avoid generic e-commerce business models
Focus on industries not yet digitized
Look for B2B commerce opportunities
Consider vertical-specific solutions with unique workflows
Example Application
“Instead of starting another consumer e-commerce site, build B2B maritime procurement platform where current solutions don't exist.”
Related Knowledge
The Ryan Studio Model
A systematic approach to creating multiple companies by combining deep industry research, patient capital, and specialist CEO recruitment rather than trying to be CEO of everything yourself.
The Dollar-Into-Two-Dollar Machine Framework
A mental model for evaluating whether to raise capital and invest in growth by determining if you can reliably convert investment into higher returns.
The 10-Year Trend Betting Framework
A strategic approach to business building that focuses exclusively on trends and opportunities that will play out over 10+ years rather than immediate market gaps.
Systematically understand a new industry well enough to identify billion-dollar opportunities
A 50-page document identifying 3-5 major pain points, key players, industry structure, and specific product opportunitie
Scale across multiple companies by being an effective chairman rather than trying to be CEO of everything
CEOs who proactively reach out for guidance, successful financing rounds, strategic decisions made efficiently, and comp
Think of Yourself as Coach, Not Player
When building multiple companies, your role is to assemble and guide talented teams rather than trying to be the best at every functional skill yourself.