My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Market timing beats team quality and product excellence - picking the right market is easily the most important factor for startup success
The Reasoning
Strong markets pull success out of mediocre execution, while great teams in tiny markets will fail despite superior capabilities. Market demand creates forgiveness for poor execution.
What Needs to Be True
- Market must be large and growing rapidly
- Customer pain must be severe enough to tolerate poor experiences
- Market timing must align with regulatory/technological enablers
Counterargument
Great teams can create markets that didn't exist before, and poor teams will fail even in great markets due to execution issues
What Would Change This View
Evidence that team quality consistently overcomes market challenges, or that great markets frequently fail to produce successful companies
Implications for Builders
Spend more time on market research than product development initially
Look for markets with desperate customers rather than perfect products
Time entry with regulatory or technological inflection points
Example Application
“Coinbase succeeded despite frequent crashes in 2014 because crypto market demand was so strong that customers tolerated poor user experience to access the market”
Related Knowledge
Digits Database Framework
A systematic approach to identifying business opportunities by collecting generation-defining statistics and examining their implications rather than dismissing them as merely interesting facts.
Regulation Inflections Framework
A method for identifying business opportunities by tracking regulatory changes that unlock previously restricted markets or create new compliance requirements.
Build AI products for industries with severe talent shortages
AI product adoption with minimal sales resistance because clients desperately need capacity, not concerned about job dis
Second and Third Order Effects Analysis
Mental framework for analyzing how primary changes create cascading effects that most people miss, revealing hidden busi
Data-driven trend spotting beats intuition for identifying opportunities
Systematic data collection and analysis can reveal opportunities that intuitive entrepreneurs miss
We all run into these stats and most are like 'Oh, that's cool.' But maybe examine this more closely
Most people encounter significant statistics but fail to analyze their business implications