My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
OpenAI will become the largest company in the world, potentially reaching trillion-dollar valuations or beyond, by combining Google-scale usage with subscription revenue.
The Reasoning
Unlike Google which relies purely on advertising, ChatGPT has both massive scale (800M weekly users) and direct subscription revenue. This dual revenue model provides higher margins and more predictable income than advertising-only models.
What Needs to Be True
- AI adoption continues accelerating
- ChatGPT maintains market leadership
- Subscription model scales globally
- Enterprise adoption increases
- Regulatory environment remains favorable
Counterargument
Competition from Google, Microsoft, and others could fragment the market. AI costs remain high, potentially limiting profitability. Regulatory concerns could slow growth or force breakups.
What Would Change This View
Significant competitive pressure reducing market share, major technical breakthrough by competitors, regulatory intervention limiting growth, or cost structure never reaching profitability at scale.
Implications for Builders
Build on OpenAI platform while it's growing
Prepare for AI-first world
Consider subscription models for your products
Don't compete directly with OpenAI's core offerings
Example Application
“A developer builds AI-powered tools using OpenAI's API, benefiting from the platform's growth while avoiding direct competition with ChatGPT's core functionality.”
Related Knowledge
Efficient Markets Business Framework
A business model based on identifying and removing inefficiencies in markets where transactions that should occur don't happen due to structural barriers.
Movement-First Category Creation
A strategy for creating new business categories by building movements around ideas rather than products, making the category accessible to everyone including competitors.
Mathematical Induction Business Philosophy
A business approach based on mathematical induction: if you can start (n=1) and always take the next step (n+1), you'll succeed infinitely.
Optimize content and website to appear in AI answer results instead of just search rankings
Your content appears as citations in ChatGPT, Claude, and other AI tool responses.
Create SEO content that ranks highly by deserving to rank higher than current results
Your content consistently ranks on page one for target keywords and drives qualified traffic that converts to leads or customers.
Achieve success through high-volume execution rather than perfect planning
You consistently ship products, content, or initiatives while competitors are still planning.