My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Life and business are more like poker than chess because the cards are face down, luck plays a major role, and most people play too many hands
The Reasoning
In chess, all information is visible and skill determines outcome. In poker and business, you have incomplete information, randomness affects results, and patience/selectivity matter more than activity level
What Needs to Be True
- Information asymmetry exists in most business decisions
- Timing and luck significantly impact outcomes
- Most opportunities are not worth pursuing
- Patience and selectivity outperform activity
Counterargument
Chess-like strategic thinking and long-term planning can overcome short-term randomness and information gaps through superior analysis and preparation
What Would Change This View
Evidence that highly active players consistently outperform patient, selective ones, or that information asymmetries don't actually exist in modern markets
Implications for Builders
Focus on fewer, higher-conviction opportunities
Build systems to handle uncertainty and incomplete information
Don't blame yourself entirely for bad outcomes - luck matters
When things are going well, that's when to be most aggressive
Example Application
“Trader reviews their performance and finds they made more money in years with fewer trades, leading them to adopt more selective approach and wait for high-conviction opportunities”
Related Knowledge
Value vs Uniqueness Business Matrix
A 2x2 matrix plotting business opportunities on axes of total value (y-axis) and uniqueness (x-axis) to determine strate
Light User vs Heavy User Funnel Strategy
Strategic positioning framework where businesses deliberately avoid heavy users who demand low margins and instead focus
Systematically expose yourself to different worldviews to avoid becoming cynical and maintain fresh perspectives
Regularly discovering new business ideas, maintaining curiosity, avoiding the 'old bear' mentality, and finding unexpect
Build a profitable newsletter business from scratch using subject matter expertise
Newsletter generating $10M+ annually with 30k+ subscribers paying $600+ per year, growing organically without paid adver
Wait for Your Pitch Strategy
Like Ted Williams mapping his batting average by strike zone, identify your 'sweet spot' opportunities and only swing at
Transparent vs Opaque Opportunity Assessment
Opportunities are either 'windows' (transparent, can see outcome clearly) or 'doors' (opaque, unknown what's behind).