My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Hard tech startups becoming viable again after software-dominated decade
Timeframe: Already underway, will accelerate over next 5-10 years
What's Changing
Transition from 'Airbnb for X' and mobile app startups to companies building rockets, supersonic jets, and solving physical world problems
Driving Forces
Software markets becoming saturated
Venture capital seeking differentiated returns
Technical talent gaining confidence from SpaceX success
Manufacturing and prototyping costs decreasing
Winners
- Technical founders willing to tackle decade-long problems
- Investors with longer time horizons
- Companies solving obvious but ignored physical problems
Losers
- Pure software plays with low barriers to entry
- VCs focused on quick exits and fund raising cycles
- Non-technical founders in technical spaces
How to Position Yourself
Build deep technical moats early
Target problems that can't be solved with software alone
Expect longer development cycles but bigger outcomes
Focus on fundamental physics and engineering advantages
Early Signals to Watch
Example Implementation
“Boom raising $700M for supersonic jets when no hard tech startups existed in 2014, now part of growing category including SpaceX, fusion companies, and manufacturing robotics.”
Related Knowledge
AI-Powered Dynamic Road Pricing Platform
Roads are always congested because we pay for them once through taxes then feel entitled to unlimited use, like if groce
Bystander Effect in Business Opportunities
A cognitive bias where obviously valuable problems get ignored because everyone assumes someone else must already be working on them, leaving trillion-dollar opportunities hiding in plain sight.
Pasta Extrusion Self-Development Framework
A methodical approach to reshaping yourself into the person capable of achieving an ambitious goal by identifying the specific 'hole' you need to fit through and systematically acquiring the required skills and attributes.
First Principles vs Pattern Matching Decision Framework
A systematic approach to understanding problems by going to root causes and fundamental physics rather than relying on rules of thumb, analogies, or conventional wisdom.
Build deep technical credibility from scratch in a complex field
Ability to have detailed technical conversations with experts, catch BS from supposed experts, and make informed technic
Make strategic decisions by working backwards from likely future scenarios
Clear conviction about which path to pursue based on which future you'd be proudest to have contributed to