My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Track Record Trumps Temporary Setbacks
When evaluating investments or partnerships, weight a leader's historical execution pattern more heavily than current challenges that appear solvable
Decision Rule
If leader has consistent pattern of overcoming obstacles + current problems are technical/external rather than fundamental competence issues = maintain confidence
How It Works
Successful leaders develop meta-skills for problem-solving that transfer across domains; temporary setbacks often create opportunities when everyone else is pessimistic
Failure Modes
Ignoring when problems indicate fundamental competence gaps
Not recognizing when external environment has permanently shifted
Overweighting charisma vs actual results
Example Decision
“Investing in Meta during metaverse skepticism because Zuckerberg's track record (Facebook growth, competitor acquisitions, platform pivots) suggests ability to navigate this challenge too”
Related Knowledge
Founder track record predicts future performance better than current challenges
Invest in proven founders during temporary setbacks rather than avoiding them
Don't Bet Against Zuck Framework
An investment thesis that assumes Mark Zuckerberg and Meta will overcome temporary setbacks due to Zuckerberg's track re
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you don't bet against Zuck
Mark Zuckerberg has such a strong execution track record that betting against him/Meta is likely to fail
hits only and he's a few people who has ho status
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