My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
“you don't bet against Zuck”
What It Means
Mark Zuckerberg has such a strong execution track record that betting against him/Meta is likely to fail
Why It Matters
Provides clear investment decision rule based on founder quality assessment
When It's True
When challenges facing the company are technical/external rather than fundamental competence issues
When It's Risky
If the founder's core competencies are no longer relevant or if challenges are existential
How to Apply
Research founder's historical performance in similar situations
Assess whether current challenges match founder's proven skill set
Use contrarian timing when others are pessimistic
Example Scenario
“During iOS privacy changes hurting Meta ads, instead of avoiding the stock, recognize this as a technical challenge Zuckerberg has overcome before”
Related Knowledge
Don't Bet Against Zuck Framework
An investment thesis that assumes Mark Zuckerberg and Meta will overcome temporary setbacks due to Zuckerberg's track re
Evaluate company quality through talent assessment during business interactions
Clear differentiation between companies based on employee caliber, impressive project examples, and innovation culture
Track Record Trumps Temporary Setbacks
When evaluating investments or partnerships, weight a leader's historical execution pattern more heavily than current ch
Founder track record predicts future performance better than current challenges
Invest in proven founders during temporary setbacks rather than avoiding them
hits only and he's a few people who has ho status
Jack Butcher consistently produces high-quality content with no misses, earning 'hits only' reputation
Facebook's advertising platform has fully recovered from iOS privacy changes, with customer acquisit
Platform adaptation combined with advertiser learning curve - Facebook rebuilt targeting capabilities while advertisers