My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Facebook's advertising platform has fully recovered from iOS privacy changes, with customer acquisition costs returning to pre-change levels
The Reasoning
Platform adaptation combined with advertiser learning curve - Facebook rebuilt targeting capabilities while advertisers optimized for new constraints
What Needs to Be True
- Facebook developed alternative targeting methods
- Advertisers learned new optimization strategies
- Competition hasn't permanently shifted to other platforms
Counterargument
Recovery might be temporary or limited to certain verticals, Apple could implement further restrictions
What Would Change This View
CAC costs spiking again, advertisers reporting poor performance, exodus to competitors
Implications for Builders
Facebook ads are viable acquisition channel again
Worth testing if previously written off
May have less competition due to lingering skepticism
Example Application
“DTC brand that abandoned Facebook ads in 2021 should test again, likely to find better performance and lower competition than expected”
Related Knowledge
Don't Bet Against Zuck Framework
An investment thesis that assumes Mark Zuckerberg and Meta will overcome temporary setbacks due to Zuckerberg's track re
Evaluate company quality through talent assessment during business interactions
Clear differentiation between companies based on employee caliber, impressive project examples, and innovation culture
Track Record Trumps Temporary Setbacks
When evaluating investments or partnerships, weight a leader's historical execution pattern more heavily than current ch
Founder track record predicts future performance better than current challenges
Invest in proven founders during temporary setbacks rather than avoiding them
you don't bet against Zuck
Mark Zuckerberg has such a strong execution track record that betting against him/Meta is likely to fail
hits only and he's a few people who has ho status
Jack Butcher consistently produces high-quality content with no misses, earning 'hits only' reputation