My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Use prediction markets as superior alternative to traditional polling and market research
Researchers, journalists, analysts, investors, political strategists
Immediate for existing events, 3-6 months for custom marketsWhat Success Looks Like
More accurate predictions than traditional polls, real-time sentiment tracking, and actionable insights for decision-making
Steps to Execute
Identify prediction markets covering your research area
Monitor odds changes over time for trend analysis
Compare prediction market odds to traditional polling
Create custom markets for proprietary research needs
Track which markets have sufficient volume for reliability
Checklist
Inputs Needed
- Access to prediction market platforms
- Understanding of odds interpretation
- Baseline comparison data (polls, etc.)
- Budget if creating custom markets
- Time horizon for research questions
Outputs
- Real-time probability assessments
- Trend analysis over time
- Confidence intervals based on volume
- Comparison accuracy vs traditional methods
Example
“Tech company launching product uses prediction markets to forecast adoption rates, comparing internal projections vs crowd wisdom, finding prediction markets 40% more accurate than internal forecasts”
Related Knowledge
Jingle Effectiveness Framework
A framework for creating memorable brand messaging using three core elements: strategic cringiness, repetitive brand men
Whale-Based Monetization Framework
A revenue model where majority of income comes from tiny percentage of users ('whales') who spend extremely large amount
marketing_fashion_over_effectiveness
Bring back jingle marketing for modern brands using updated distribution channels
Measurable increase in brand recall, organic sharing of jingle content, and ability to track phone numbers/URLs mentione
Earworm Marketing Principle
Marketing messages packaged as repetitive musical snippets create stronger memory encoding than visual or spoken message
Skin-in-Game Crowd Wisdom
Collective predictions become more accurate when participants risk their own money rather than just offering opinions