My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Skin-in-Game Crowd Wisdom
Collective predictions become more accurate when participants risk their own money rather than just offering opinions
Decision Rule
When seeking predictions or market research, prioritize sources where participants have financial stake in accuracy
How It Works
Financial risk filters out casual opinions and motivated reasoning, leaving participants who genuinely believe their predictions
Failure Modes
Low volume markets easily manipulated
Participants with inside information
Unclear resolution criteria
Demographic bias in participant pool
Example Decision
“Instead of conducting expensive consumer surveys, create prediction market for product adoption rates”
Related Knowledge
Neurological patterns are more important than cultural trends in marketing effectiveness
Marketers should prioritize brain science over industry fashion when choosing tactics
Jingle Effectiveness Framework
A framework for creating memorable brand messaging using three core elements: strategic cringiness, repetitive brand men
Whale-Based Monetization Framework
A revenue model where majority of income comes from tiny percentage of users ('whales') who spend extremely large amount
Bring back jingle marketing for modern brands using updated distribution channels
Measurable increase in brand recall, organic sharing of jingle content, and ability to track phone numbers/URLs mentione
Use prediction markets as superior alternative to traditional polling and market research
More accurate predictions than traditional polls, real-time sentiment tracking, and actionable insights for decision-mak
Earworm Marketing Principle
Marketing messages packaged as repetitive musical snippets create stronger memory encoding than visual or spoken message