My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
“trouble is opportunity”
What It Means
Crisis situations often create mispricings and opportunities for sophisticated investors willing to act when others flee
Why It Matters
Most people avoid troubled assets, creating opportunity for those who can analyze risk properly
When It's True
When fundamental value exists despite temporary problems, when you have superior analytical capabilities, during panic-driven selloffs
When It's Risky
When problems are actually fundamental rather than temporary, when you lack expertise to evaluate properly
How to Apply
Maintain dry powder for crisis opportunities
Develop rapid due diligence capabilities
Build network for sourcing distressed opportunities
Focus on situations where temporary problems obscure fundamental value
Example Scenario
“Scott Galloway buying FTX bankruptcy claims at 20 cents on dollar during maximum stigma, tripling money as situation resolved better than expected”
Related Knowledge
when I See Fire I run towards it
Experienced investors should move toward crisis situations rather than away from them, as crises create opportunities
Distressed Asset Opportunity Recognition
Sophisticated investors are systematically finding value in distressed, stigmatized, or crisis-affected assets while oth
My two favorite words in the English language: distressed asset
Greatest investment opportunities come from assets selling below intrinsic value due to temporary problems
I look for things that are hated and unloved
Investment strategy focused on assets with widespread negative sentiment, betting that hatred creates undervaluation opp
Timeline Forcing Analysis
A method of analyzing successful companies by drawing out year-by-year timelines to reveal the 'forgotten grinding years' between start and breakthrough.
Too Hard Pile Decision Making
A decision-making framework where you categorize opportunities into 'obviously good', 'obviously bad', and 'too hard to judge' - then only act on the obviously good ones.