My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
“when I See Fire I run towards it”
What It Means
Experienced investors should move toward crisis situations rather than away from them, as crises create opportunities
Why It Matters
Contrarian behavior during crisis is often the highest-return investment strategy for sophisticated players
When It's True
When you have experience analyzing distressed situations, when you have available capital, when crisis is creating temporary mispricings
When It's Risky
When you lack expertise in distressed analysis, when crisis reflects fundamental rather than temporary problems
How to Apply
Build expertise in crisis analysis before crises hit
Maintain capital reserves for opportunistic deployment
Develop quick decision-making processes for time-sensitive opportunities
Focus on situations where your analytical edge is highest
Example Scenario
“During banking crisis, quickly analyze fundamentally sound banks trading at distressed prices while other investors flee the entire sector”
Related Knowledge
trouble is opportunity
Crisis situations often create mispricings and opportunities for sophisticated investors willing to act when others flee
My two favorite words in the English language: distressed asset
Greatest investment opportunities come from assets selling below intrinsic value due to temporary problems
Distressed Asset Opportunity Recognition
Sophisticated investors are systematically finding value in distressed, stigmatized, or crisis-affected assets while oth
fish were the fish swim not where the fishermen stand
Look for business opportunities where real demand exists, not where all entrepreneurs are competing
I look for things that are hated and unloved
Investment strategy focused on assets with widespread negative sentiment, betting that hatred creates undervaluation opp
Timeline Forcing Analysis
A method of analyzing successful companies by drawing out year-by-year timelines to reveal the 'forgotten grinding years' between start and breakthrough.