My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Polymarket will reach nearly $1 billion in betting volume by end of 2024, driven by presidential election coverage
The Reasoning
Media embedding drives viral growth, election cycles create massive betting interest, and platform has solved user experience problems that plagued earlier prediction markets
What Needs to Be True
- US election generates massive betting interest
- Media continues embedding prediction market odds
- Platform maintains technical reliability
- Regulatory environment remains stable
Counterargument
Regulatory crackdown, technical issues, or competition could limit growth; US restrictions already limit addressable market
What Would Change This View
Sharp regulatory restrictions, platform technical failures, or traditional polling accuracy improvement
Implications for Builders
Prediction market infrastructure is valuable
Media-embeddable widgets are high-leverage features
Election cycles create predictable demand spikes
Example Application
“Build prediction market widgets for news sites or create specialized markets for specific industries”
Related Knowledge
Jingle Effectiveness Framework
A framework for creating memorable brand messaging using three core elements: strategic cringiness, repetitive brand men
Whale-Based Monetization Framework
A revenue model where majority of income comes from tiny percentage of users ('whales') who spend extremely large amount
Bring back jingle marketing for modern brands using updated distribution channels
Measurable increase in brand recall, organic sharing of jingle content, and ability to track phone numbers/URLs mentione
Use prediction markets as superior alternative to traditional polling and market research
More accurate predictions than traditional polls, real-time sentiment tracking, and actionable insights for decision-mak
Earworm Marketing Principle
Marketing messages packaged as repetitive musical snippets create stronger memory encoding than visual or spoken message
Skin-in-Game Crowd Wisdom
Collective predictions become more accurate when participants risk their own money rather than just offering opinions