My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Confidence and self-belief matter more for business success than raw intelligence
The Reasoning
High confidence leads to bigger risk-taking, faster decision-making, and self-fulfilling prophecies that create more opportunities than cautious intelligence
What Needs to Be True
- Markets reward execution over perfection
- Confidence translates to action
- Intelligence without confidence leads to paralysis
- Success requires taking risks
Counterargument
Intelligence helps avoid costly mistakes and enables better strategy in complex situations
What Would Change This View
Data showing high-IQ, low-confidence people consistently outperform high-confidence, moderate-IQ people in business outcomes
Implications for Builders
Work on self-belief alongside skills
Take action despite uncertainty
Focus on execution over endless planning
Surround yourself with confident people
Example Application
“Multiple billionaires at the event weren't the smartest people there but had unshakeable belief in their vision and ability to execute”
Related Knowledge
Fish Where The Fish Swim Framework
Look for business opportunities in niches where demand exists but few entrepreneurs are competing, rather than crowded m
Man Must Become Chocolate Framework
To succeed with a product, founders must obsess deeply enough to become genuine experts, not just celebrity endorsers or
Dominate retail distribution through obsessive attention to in-store execution
Products are perfectly displayed, stocked, and positioned in stores leading to maximum sales velocity and retailer satis
Game Selection Over Game Optimization
Choosing the right game to play matters more than optimizing performance within the wrong game
Intensity and obsession are undervalued competitive advantages
Most people won't do what it takes to truly understand their business, creating opportunities for those who will
fish were the fish swim not where the fishermen stand
Look for business opportunities where real demand exists, not where all entrepreneurs are competing